Roundtable in Dekalb where the Naperville formula was proven to exaggerate enrollment significantly.
Extracted from Dekalb County Online. Report at a business roundtable on March 28, 2006.
The DeKalb County Economic Development Corporation hosted a Business Roundtable on March 28, 2006 at the DeKalb County Farm Bureau. Presentations were given by Dave Emanuelson of Strategic Management Alliance, Walter Magdziarz of Land Vision Inc. and Bill Nicklas, City of Sycamore. The topic was “Fiscal Impact of Residential Growth.” The event set a DCEDC record, in terms of attendance.
The panelists used local surveys and data to analyze, forecast and discuss topics such as demographics, homeowner profiles, and infrastructure needs related to new residential growth in primarily Sycamore and Cortland. It was refreshing to see actual local data being used as a source.
Magdziarz discussed trends in residential growth on a regional basis as well as an informative update on Cortland. On regional trends, according to his research on projections through 2040, there were unexpected results:
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• 70% of new home buyers desire traditional urban density as opposed to the large single family-detached lots of suburbia.
• 57% prefer lot sizes of 7,000 sq. ft. or less. Only 15% preferred town homes.
• 54% indicated a preference of the city or older suburbs as the likely location of their next home purchase.
• 26% of home purchases are made by single females.
• 86% of the households will not have children living in them (source: Chris Nelson, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University)
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Cortland is DeKalb County’s fastest growing community. The town has 3,502 approved residential units. More are waiting in the wings. The community is served by three different school districts (DeKalb #428, Sycamore #427 and Kaneland #302).
According to Magdziarz, Cortland will receive about $34.8 million in contributions from developers (who will then in turn pass those costs on to their customers).
Former DeKalb Park District director, Dave Emanuelson, who is now president of Strategic Management Alliance, reported on demographic studies he has performed in DeKalb County.
He cautioned governmental units, especially the education sector, against over-reliance on the “Naperville formula” for student enrollment projections. Those tables are overestimating enrollment figures and, as a result, could lead to successful challenges by developers to impact fees and contributions derived from those projections. The number of children produced by town homes is so low that Emanuelson believes they should be regarded similar to industrial development.
Bill Nicklas shared demographics from Sycamore’s recent new residential developments. Since June of 2004 the City of Sycamore has made mandatory, as a prerequisite to obtaining a final occupancy permit, a completed survey that identifies the number of school aged children living in each new home.
A total of 694 surveys (dwelling units) have been collected. Those homes have generated 427 new students (of those 134 are preschool aged). Almost 68% of the new homes built in Sycamore do not have any children living in them.
For more information:
http://www.dekalbcountyonline.com/index.php?Option=com_content&task=view&id=35&Itemid=37